We believe that voters need good data as the mail ballots drop. However, nobody has shared results from a reputable poll for a while. So, we coughed up the big bucks for a formal poll of the 49th by a top-shelf pollster.
The results of our FM3 Research poll (run April 26-29) show Doug Applegate still on top but the race is very, very close with a messy, crowded field. We're still very much in danger of a Democratic shut-out. If any candidate moves more than a few points, their position in the pack will be dramatically affected. It's time to think about strategic voting to make sure a Democrat is on the final ballot.
We commissioned our poll of the 49th Congressional District with Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz, and Associates (FM3). This poll of 500 likely primary voters was taken from April 26 to April 29. Live interviews were conducted by cell phone and landline.
With only a month left, no candidate leads by more than 16%. Democrats are still in danger of being locked out in November. The stakes are high and the outcome is still very much in doubt.
In a simple ballot test, Democrat Doug Applegate continues to lead with 16%. He has been the Democratic front-runner in every reputable poll taken this year. The new Republican front-runner is Diane Harkey at 14%. The other major candidates are bunched up in the middle of the pack with Sara Jacobs (D) at 12%, Mike Levin (D) at 11%, Rocky Chavez (R) at 10%, and Kristin Gaspar (R) at 9%. Paul Kerr (D) and Brian Maryott (R) trail with 6% and 4% respectively. 16% of voters are still undecided.
Doug Applegate is the most well-known Democratic candidate and Rocky Chavez is the best-known Republican. Applegate has a net favorability of +14 points (35% favorable, 21% unfavorable). Chavez has suffered a major drop in favorability from a similar poll conducted in February, from +11 points (30% favorable, 19% unfavorable) in February to +3 (25% favorable, 22% unfavorable) in the current poll.
Democrats Sara Jacobs and Paul Kerr significantly increased their awareness and name recognition by spending heavily on television, direct mail, online ads, and paid canvassing. Jacobs has a net favorability of +9 points (23% favorable, 14% unfavorable) while Kerr has a net favorability of +5 points (22% favorable, 17% unfavorable). Mike Levin’s net favorability is +14 points (22% favorable, 8% unfavorable).
Republican Diane Harkey has a net favorability of +8 points (16% favorable, 8% unfavorable).
Candidate Favorable/Unfavorable (With Comp to February)
This race is still wide open.
Democratic and Independent primary voters will need to think seriously about strategic voting in this election to ensure that a Democrat makes it on to the final November ballot. That means voting for the Democratic front-runner or at least one of the top two Democrats.
Mail ballots drop next week. Mail voting will start as early as May 7th.
Documents to Download: Press Release and Public Polling Memo