We assume that we're getting towards the end of the vote counting process. No change in the order of the finishers and only slight changes in the percentages since the last update here (on the 11th).
Both San Diego and Orange counties continue to count mail and provisional ballots. As of June 11, over 153,000 total votes have been counted. Here are the updated totals:
Wednesday morning: With 100% of precincts reporting, the shape of the race is defined (even with many ballots left to count)
Bottom Line: It's Harkey vs. Levin in November
100% of precincts have reported. There are still many, many ballots to count (provisional ballots and mail ballots dropped into mailboxes on Monday or Tuesday). With that said, it's unlikely that the shape of this race will change much. Unless something really dramatic happens with provisional and mail ballots, it's Harkey vs. Levin in the November general election.
Here's how we netted out: Harkey 25.5%, Levin 17.1%, Jacobs 15.5%, Applegate 13.2%, Gaspar 8.7%, Chavez 7.8%, and Kerr 4.8% (the rest were in the low single digits).
In San Diego County, Jacobs actually beat Levin 16.6% to 16.4% (but Levin won Orange County by a lot, taking 19.4% of the vote there). Doug was stronger in San Diego as well, with 14.9% there compared to 7.9% in Orange County.
The percentages will move around a bit as the rest of the ballots are counted. We'll update later this week with final totals (or sooner if something surprising happens and the order of candidates changes at all)
Results from the New York Times below:
Here are the San Diego County totals from the California Secretary of State:
NYT vote count update (top slot now called for Harkey). Levin is holding over 17% with 63% of precincts reporting. There's some chance Sara may stage a late surge... but it's looking a lot like Harkey/Levin in November.
The good news is that we didn't get locked out of CA49. Democrats also landed a candidate in the top two in CA39, CA48, and CA50, all very important districts that were in danger of lock-outs. So Democrats will be on the ballot in all of these key districts in November. That's a big step towards re-taking the House.
In our little district, it turns out that all three Democrats in the pack behind Harkey were viable in the end (and were fine strategic voting choices). Kristin Gaspar and Rocky Chavez trailed far behind in the single digits.
We'll post another update in the morning... and if Sara does catch Mike with a photo-finish, we'll update over the next few days as the provisional ballots and last minute mail ballots get counted.
Harkey 25.4%, Levin 17.2%, Jacobs 15%, Applegate 12.9%
49% of precincts reporting
Full candidate list below (Source NYT)
Harkey 24.7%, Levin 17%, Jacobs 15.4%, Applegate 13.3%
38.8% of precincts reporting
San Diego County and State totals below
Vote count update as of 10p: Harkey 24.5%, Levin 16.7%, Jacobs 15.3%, Applegate 13.3%
San Diego County and State totals below
Two new polls... right before everyone votes
Two polls hit right before the election (on Friday, June 1st).
Here is the scoop:
The first poll came out in a Roll Call article on Friday morning (apparently leaked). We've heard from several sources that it was commissioned by the DCCC. The poll was conducted by Tulchin Research (reputable, 538 grade of B). It had a sample size of 500 voters. Live telephone interviews were conducted between May 22-24.
The results of the DCCC Tulchin poll are as follows:
Mike Levin (D) 17
Diane Harkey (R) 15
Doug Applegate (D) 12
Sara Jacobs (D) 11
Rocky Chavez (R) 11
Paul Kerr (D) 7
Kristin Gaspar (R) 7
Brian Maryott (R) 6
The second poll was released by the San Diego Union-Tribune and KGTV 10 News about an hour after the DCCC poll hit Roll Call. The U-T and KGTV paid for the poll. It was conducted by SurveyUSA (reputable, 538 grade of A). It had a sample size of 700. The methodology included a mix of IVR and live interviews, landline and cell, conducted between May 29-31.
Here are the results of the U-T/KGTV Survey USA poll:
Diane Harkey 24
Applegate (D) 11
Sara Jacobs (D) 11
Mike Levin (D) 10
Paul Kerr (D) 10
Rocky Chavez (R) 8
Bryan Maryott (R) 6
Kristin Gaspar (R) 5
Here's how these results fit in with all the other polls taken since February:
So... what does this all mean if you're voting strategically?
Well, the good news is that the odds of a Democrat making it through the primary are rising with Doug Applegate, Sara Jacobs, and Mike Levin all in strong contention for the second spot on the ballot. The bad news is that Chavez is still dangerous... the recent Tulchin poll has him at 11% and that's still close enough to the Democratic pack to keep him in contention. Also, his share of "already voted" is 12%, and those are in the bank. We're not out of the woods. Everyone must vote... and we still need to think about voting strategically.
But how do you pick a Democrat? Kerr is not a factor anymore, but the other three are neck and neck if you average the recent polls.
Here's where we net out: Doug Applegate is still the best strategic voting choice. Sara Jacobs has definitely done well and is in contention, but her momentum has stalled and she's still dependent on millennials who may or may not turn out. Mike Levin has been stuck in a range between 8% and 12% in every single poll except the recent Tulchin poll which is an outlier. The SurveyUSA poll taken a week after the Tulchin poll has him in his familiar range, at 10%. So there are huge questions about whether Levin has broken out or not... and we can't take one poll as gospel, especially since it was a leaked top-line result with no details.
If you can't stand Doug Applegate, then pick Jacobs or Levin. You can make arguments either way for these two candidates.
But whatever you do, please don't vote for Kerr - he's a spoiler right now. Every vote for Kerr is essentially a vote for Chavez.
Mike Levin and Paul Kerr have launched toxic attacks against other Democrats... and that's bad news if you want to turn the 49th blue
Mike Levin and Paul Kerr have gone negative in the race for the 49th district. They are attacking other Democrats in a very toxic way.
This behavior lowers the odds that a Democrat will get through the primary.
A toxic attack by one Democrat against another is a selfish move, one that benefits only the attacker at the expense of all of our hopes of flipping the 49th. Going negative is about pulling others down rather than lifting yourself up, which we can't afford in a jungle primary like this one.
In a California primary, Democrats are competing with each other for a slot on the final ballot but they are also on a team together. At least one Democrat must make it through the primary and that's not guaranteed. Democrats could split the vote and hand both spots on the November ballot to Republicans.
Democratic candidates should stay positive. Mike and Paul, make the case for why people should vote for you rather than tearing down your fellow Democrats. Lift yourselves up.
Stop the Blue-on-Blue attacks now! Let's not hand the 49th district to the Republicans because we are hurting our own candidates.
COLONEL APPLEGATE IS AHEAD IN THE POLLS
He is the key to avoiding a Democratic shut-out in November
Doug Applegate is the top Democrat in the race to replace Issa in CA-49. Doug has been the Democratic front-runner in all but one of the most reputable polls, and there have been seven of them between February and late May.
He's our best shot at getting a Democrat through this vicious jungle primary where four Democrats are splitting the vote. He is also the best candidate for the November election. Remember that Applegate came within 1,621 votes of beating Issa in 2016, a feat which was considered impossible because Issa was thought to be invulnerable.
The stakes are high. The top two vote-getters in this June election will be going onto the final ballot in November regardless of party. The odds that Democrats could get shut out are still frighteningly high. Republicans could claim the top two spots.
This primary could decide the November election before it even happens.
How do you avoid this grim fate? By voting for the Democratic front-runner: Doug Applegate.
DOUG APPLEGATE IS WITH US ON THE ISSUES
DOUG APPLEGATE IS A MAN OF PRINCIPLE
"He won't always do the easy thing, but he will do the right thing"
Voices of the 49th is committed to making sure that voters in the 49th congressional district have a meaningful choice in November... which means engaging, educating, informing, and influencing voters through the jungle primary in June so that a Democrat makes it on to the final ballot.