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We assume that we're getting towards the end of the vote counting process. No change in the order of the finishers and only slight changes in the percentages since the last update here (on the 11th). 
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Both San Diego and Orange counties continue to count mail and provisional ballots. As of June 11, over 153,000 total votes have been counted. Here are the updated totals:  Bottom Line: It's Harkey vs. Levin in November100% of precincts have reported. There are still many, many ballots to count (provisional ballots and mail ballots dropped into mailboxes on Monday or Tuesday). With that said, it's unlikely that the shape of this race will change much. Unless something really dramatic happens with provisional and mail ballots, it's Harkey vs. Levin in the November general election. Here's how we netted out: Harkey 25.5%, Levin 17.1%, Jacobs 15.5%, Applegate 13.2%, Gaspar 8.7%, Chavez 7.8%, and Kerr 4.8% (the rest were in the low single digits). In San Diego County, Jacobs actually beat Levin 16.6% to 16.4% (but Levin won Orange County by a lot, taking 19.4% of the vote there). Doug was stronger in San Diego as well, with 14.9% there compared to 7.9% in Orange County. The percentages will move around a bit as the rest of the ballots are counted. We'll update later this week with final totals (or sooner if something surprising happens and the order of candidates changes at all) Results from the New York Times below:  Here are the San Diego County totals from the California Secretary of State:  NYT vote count update (top slot now called for Harkey). Levin is holding over 17% with 63% of precincts reporting. There's some chance Sara may stage a late surge... but it's looking a lot like Harkey/Levin in November. The good news is that we didn't get locked out of CA49. Democrats also landed a candidate in the top two in CA39, CA48, and CA50, all very important districts that were in danger of lock-outs. So Democrats will be on the ballot in all of these key districts in November. That's a big step towards re-taking the House. In our little district, it turns out that all three Democrats in the pack behind Harkey were viable in the end (and were fine strategic voting choices). Kristin Gaspar and Rocky Chavez trailed far behind in the single digits. We'll post another update in the morning... and if Sara does catch Mike with a photo-finish, we'll update over the next few days as the provisional ballots and last minute mail ballots get counted.  Harkey 25.4%, Levin 17.2%, Jacobs 15%, Applegate 12.9% 49% of precincts reporting Full candidate list below (Source NYT)  Harkey 24.7%, Levin 17%, Jacobs 15.4%, Applegate 13.3% 38.8% of precincts reporting San Diego County and State totals below  Vote count update as of 10p: Harkey 24.5%, Levin 16.7%, Jacobs 15.3%, Applegate 13.3% San Diego County and State totals below  Two new polls... right before everyone votes Two polls hit right before the election (on Friday, June 1st). Here is the scoop: The first poll came out in a Roll Call article on Friday morning (apparently leaked). We've heard from several sources that it was commissioned by the DCCC. The poll was conducted by Tulchin Research (reputable, 538 grade of B). It had a sample size of 500 voters. Live telephone interviews were conducted between May 22-24. The results of the DCCC Tulchin poll are as follows: Mike Levin (D) 17 Diane Harkey (R) 15 Doug Applegate (D) 12 Sara Jacobs (D) 11 Rocky Chavez (R) 11 Paul Kerr (D) 7 Kristin Gaspar (R) 7 Brian Maryott (R) 6 The second poll was released by the San Diego Union-Tribune and KGTV 10 News about an hour after the DCCC poll hit Roll Call. The U-T and KGTV paid for the poll. It was conducted by SurveyUSA (reputable, 538 grade of A). It had a sample size of 700. The methodology included a mix of IVR and live interviews, landline and cell, conducted between May 29-31. Here are the results of the U-T/KGTV Survey USA poll: Diane Harkey 24 Applegate (D) 11 Sara Jacobs (D) 11 Mike Levin (D) 10 Paul Kerr (D) 10 Rocky Chavez (R) 8 Bryan Maryott (R) 6 Kristin Gaspar (R) 5 Here's how these results fit in with all the other polls taken since February:  So... what does this all mean if you're voting strategically?
Well, the good news is that the odds of a Democrat making it through the primary are rising with Doug Applegate, Sara Jacobs, and Mike Levin all in strong contention for the second spot on the ballot. The bad news is that Chavez is still dangerous... the recent Tulchin poll has him at 11% and that's still close enough to the Democratic pack to keep him in contention. Also, his share of "already voted" is 12%, and those are in the bank. We're not out of the woods. Everyone must vote... and we still need to think about voting strategically. But how do you pick a Democrat? Kerr is not a factor anymore, but the other three are neck and neck if you average the recent polls. Here's where we net out: Doug Applegate is still the best strategic voting choice. Sara Jacobs has definitely done well and is in contention, but her momentum has stalled and she's still dependent on millennials who may or may not turn out. Mike Levin has been stuck in a range between 8% and 12% in every single poll except the recent Tulchin poll which is an outlier. The SurveyUSA poll taken a week after the Tulchin poll has him in his familiar range, at 10%. So there are huge questions about whether Levin has broken out or not... and we can't take one poll as gospel, especially since it was a leaked top-line result with no details. If you can't stand Doug Applegate, then pick Jacobs or Levin. You can make arguments either way for these two candidates. But whatever you do, please don't vote for Kerr - he's a spoiler right now. Every vote for Kerr is essentially a vote for Chavez.  Mike Levin and Paul Kerr have gone negative in the race for the 49th district. They are attacking other Democrats in a very toxic way. This behavior lowers the odds that a Democrat will get through the primary. A toxic attack by one Democrat against another is a selfish move, one that benefits only the attacker at the expense of all of our hopes of flipping the 49th. Going negative is about pulling others down rather than lifting yourself up, which we can't afford in a jungle primary like this one. In a California primary, Democrats are competing with each other for a slot on the final ballot but they are also on a team together. At least one Democrat must make it through the primary and that's not guaranteed. Democrats could split the vote and hand both spots on the November ballot to Republicans. Democratic candidates should stay positive. Mike and Paul, make the case for why people should vote for you rather than tearing down your fellow Democrats. Lift yourselves up. Stop the Blue-on-Blue attacks now! Let's not hand the 49th district to the Republicans because we are hurting our own candidates.  COLONEL APPLEGATE IS AHEAD IN THE POLLSHe is the key to avoiding a Democratic shut-out in NovemberDoug Applegate is the top Democrat in the race to replace Issa in CA-49. Doug has been the Democratic front-runner in all but one of the most reputable polls, and there have been seven of them between February and late May. He's our best shot at getting a Democrat through this vicious jungle primary where four Democrats are splitting the vote. He is also the best candidate for the November election. Remember that Applegate came within 1,621 votes of beating Issa in 2016, a feat which was considered impossible because Issa was thought to be invulnerable. The stakes are high. The top two vote-getters in this June election will be going onto the final ballot in November regardless of party. The odds that Democrats could get shut out are still frighteningly high. Republicans could claim the top two spots. This primary could decide the November election before it even happens. How do you avoid this grim fate? By voting for the Democratic front-runner: Doug Applegate. DOUG APPLEGATE IS WITH US ON THE ISSUES
DOUG APPLEGATE IS A MAN OF PRINCIPLE"He won't always do the easy thing, but he will do the right thing" |
 | DOUG APPLEGATEON THE ISSUES |
Health care is a human right. Coverage must be extended to all Americans. Doug supports single-payer health care, which has served senior citizens and the military for decades.
Women must have control over their choices and complete equality. All women should have control over their own health choices and are entitled to equal pay, equal access, equal benefits, and equal rights.
$15 Minimum Wage. The federal minimum wage should be $15 with a cost of living adjustment every year to keep up with inflation.
Climate change is real. The United States must move to 100% renewable energy by 2027. Our economy will actually benefit as a result.
Great public education for all. Americans deserve access to free high quality public education from pre-school through 16 years (including college or vocational school).
Immigration reform with respect for immigrants. This is a country of immigrants. Immigration reform should include a pathway to citizenship.
Gun violence prevention through common sense gun law reform. Doug isn't out to take guns away but he wants to make sure gun owners are trained and qualified through mandatory weapons safety courses and tactical range qualifications. The purchase of ammunition should require proof of this training and qualification.
Campaign finance reform. End Citizens United and ensure full disclosure for all PACs and political donors. Reduce the corrupting effect of money in our political system.
Criminal justice reform. Reduce institutional racism in schools and prisons, reform the prison industrial complex, and move to a more just, equitable system that still preserves our security.
Full LGBTQ+ Rights. Equality for all regardless of sexual orientation and gender identity, including our friends, family, and service members. This war is not won yet.
Strengthen the VA. This country can improve care for veterans without privatizing the VA, starting with streamlining and improving access and creating a more patient-oriented veterans health care system.
A strong defense policy that also considers those who serve in harm's way. As a veteran, Doug will keep America strong and safe, but at the same time be very careful about sending our troops into harm's way. Congress should not act hastily when the lives of our troops are at stake. After all, these troops are sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, siblings, spouses, and friends.
Social Security and Medicare. Doug will work tirelessly to protect Social Security and Medicare from attempts to privatize, reduce, or otherwise harm these critical programs.
Women must have control over their choices and complete equality. All women should have control over their own health choices and are entitled to equal pay, equal access, equal benefits, and equal rights.
$15 Minimum Wage. The federal minimum wage should be $15 with a cost of living adjustment every year to keep up with inflation.
Climate change is real. The United States must move to 100% renewable energy by 2027. Our economy will actually benefit as a result.
Great public education for all. Americans deserve access to free high quality public education from pre-school through 16 years (including college or vocational school).
Immigration reform with respect for immigrants. This is a country of immigrants. Immigration reform should include a pathway to citizenship.
Gun violence prevention through common sense gun law reform. Doug isn't out to take guns away but he wants to make sure gun owners are trained and qualified through mandatory weapons safety courses and tactical range qualifications. The purchase of ammunition should require proof of this training and qualification.
Campaign finance reform. End Citizens United and ensure full disclosure for all PACs and political donors. Reduce the corrupting effect of money in our political system.
Criminal justice reform. Reduce institutional racism in schools and prisons, reform the prison industrial complex, and move to a more just, equitable system that still preserves our security.
Full LGBTQ+ Rights. Equality for all regardless of sexual orientation and gender identity, including our friends, family, and service members. This war is not won yet.
Strengthen the VA. This country can improve care for veterans without privatizing the VA, starting with streamlining and improving access and creating a more patient-oriented veterans health care system.
A strong defense policy that also considers those who serve in harm's way. As a veteran, Doug will keep America strong and safe, but at the same time be very careful about sending our troops into harm's way. Congress should not act hastily when the lives of our troops are at stake. After all, these troops are sons, daughters, fathers, mothers, siblings, spouses, and friends.
Social Security and Medicare. Doug will work tirelessly to protect Social Security and Medicare from attempts to privatize, reduce, or otherwise harm these critical programs.
Doug Applegate is the Democratic front-runner in all CA-49 polls for a reason.
Voters trust him and have confidence in his leadership.
Doug is committed to expanding healthcare coverage, doing right by our veterans, fighting for women's rights, protecting Social Security and Medicare, supporting public education, pushing for a clean energy future, and leading immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship.
He won't always do the easy thing, but he will do the right thing. Trust Doug with your vote in the June primary.
He won't always do the easy thing, but he will do the right thing. Trust Doug with your vote in the June primary.
Mail ballots have dropped, early voting has started, and Doug Applegate is the Democratic front-runner in every reputable poll.
He's our best shot at getting a Democrat through the June primary and onto the final November ballot.
It's time to make a choice in the CA-49 primary, and Doug Applegate is the Democratic front-runner
5/7/2018
Mail ballots have dropped and early voting has started
With the election basically upon us and the Democratic field still dangerously crowded, we have to consider strategic voting to make sure a Democrat makes it through the primary. Doug Applegate has been the consistent Democratic front-runner in four reputable polls (two in mid-February, one in early April, and one recent poll in the last week of April). He is the best bet to be one of the top two winners in June.
Applegate has maintained his lead in the face of over $3 million spent by Sara Jacobs and Paul Kerr to gain name recognition and awareness. Jacobs and Kerr have definitely moved up in the polls, but time is running short for them and it now looks like they don't have the momentum to break through and take the lead.
Applegate has maintained his lead in the face of over $3 million spent by Sara Jacobs and Paul Kerr to gain name recognition and awareness. Jacobs and Kerr have definitely moved up in the polls, but time is running short for them and it now looks like they don't have the momentum to break through and take the lead.
Poll Momentum, mid-February to late April
Apples-to-apples FM3 Research polls in mid-February and late April show Doug Applegate holding on despite millions of dollars spent by Sara Jacobs and Paul Kerr. Even with a four point margin of error, Doug's lead in late April is statistically significant.
Playing the chess game out
If Doug can turn his current lead into votes, especially with the help of strategic voting on the part of Democrats, then the odds are in favor of him making the top two in June - and getting on the final ballot in November.
Remember, there is still a chance that the Republicans could lock us out. Don't take too much comfort from Rocky's fall from grace. Things are clearly in flux on the Republican side, and that fluidity could end up hurting us if Diane Harkey and Rocky Chavez wind up splitting the Republican vote.
What about the other Democrats? None of them has ever led in a reputable poll. Based on recent poll data, it looks to us like Sara Jacobs is relying on young voters for her support, and while we are rooting for them to show up in June, they have a very uneven record for turn-out. Mike Levin has a solid operation but he's never broken out of a narrow range throughout the entire campaign. Paul Kerr looks the most like a spoiler in spite of his heavy spending in March and April.
Remember, there is still a chance that the Republicans could lock us out. Don't take too much comfort from Rocky's fall from grace. Things are clearly in flux on the Republican side, and that fluidity could end up hurting us if Diane Harkey and Rocky Chavez wind up splitting the Republican vote.
What about the other Democrats? None of them has ever led in a reputable poll. Based on recent poll data, it looks to us like Sara Jacobs is relying on young voters for her support, and while we are rooting for them to show up in June, they have a very uneven record for turn-out. Mike Levin has a solid operation but he's never broken out of a narrow range throughout the entire campaign. Paul Kerr looks the most like a spoiler in spite of his heavy spending in March and April.
Our best bet: Doug Applegate
We think the strongest play for Democrats is to support Applegate. He's got the best odds of making it through to November. Also, if the Republicans stumble and Sara's young voters turn out in droves (or Levin manages to break through his ceiling), then voting for Applegate might even give us a shot at two Democrats on final ballot. If you're undecided about a candidate, please consider voting for Applegate. And if you are supporting Paul Kerr, please think about whether or not that might be a wasted vote.
The bottom line: Several House races in California are in serious danger because of too many candidates running in our unforgiving Top Two "jungle primary" system. CA-49 is called out prominently in the article.
Author
Voices of the 49th is committed to making sure that voters in the 49th congressional district have a meaningful choice in November... which means engaging, educating, informing, and influencing voters through the jungle primary in June so that a Democrat makes it on to the final ballot.
Remember:
1. Vote on June 5th!
2. Vote for the Democratic front-runner
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