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February SurveyUSA Poll of the 49th

2/17/2018

First big poll of the 49th shows Doug Applegate ahead with 18% but Chavez is nipping at his heels (17%); Diane Harkey is in third with 10%

SurveyUSA is out with results from a mid-February poll of the 49th commissioned by the Union-Tribune and KGTV-TV. From the SurveyUSA commentary:

Democrat Doug Applegate stands toe-to-toe with Republican Rocky Chavez, in the Top 2 California primary to replace GOP Congressman Darrell Issa in CA-49.

According to polling conducted by SurveyUSA exclusively for KGTV-TV and the Union-Tribune in San Diego, it's Applegate 18%, Chavez 17%, Republican Diane Harkey at 10%, Democrat Mike
Levin at 8%, Republican Kristin Gaspar at 7% and Democrat Sara Jacobs at 5%, with others further back. 27% of likely voters today are undecided, understandable given that additional candidates
have until 03/09/18 to jump into the race. If the total number of Republican votes today are added up and the total number of Democratic votes today are added up, Republicans lead Democrats
38% to 35%. The top two finishers in the primary advance to the 11/06/18 general election, even if the top two finishers are both from the same political party. Issa, one of a number of high-profile
Republican members of Congress to voluntarily leave office during Mr. Trump's first term, won reelection in 2016 by defeating Applegate by a handful of votes.

* Applegate's voters are focused on President Trump.
* Chavez' voters are focused on the economy.
* Harkey's supporters are focused on building a wall between the United States and Mexico.
* Levin's supporters are focused on healthcare.
* Mr. Trump's Net Job Approval in CA-49 is Minus 5: 46% of voters approve of the job he is doing as President, 51% disapprove.
* Issa's Net Job Approval in CA-49 is also Minus 5: 44% of voters approve of the job Issa is doing in the U.S. House of Representatives; 49% disapprove.