A new CA-49 poll from Sara's campaign has Doug as the Dem front-runner with Sara second, same as our FM3 Research poll

5/11/2018

Sara's poll was conducted by Benenson, a reputable pollster

Sara's poll of 901 likely primary voters in the 49th Congressional District was conducted between April 28th and May 2nd (about the same time frame as our FM3 Research poll) and has a margin of error of 3.3%.

The simple ballot test from Sara's poll has Diane Harkey and Rocky Chavez on top (14% each) with Doug in third place as the Democratic front-runner (13%). Sara Jacobs and Mike Levin are in the middle of the pack (11% and 10% respectively). Kristin Gaspar trails at 7%, closely followed by Brian Maryott (6%). Paul Kerr brings up the back of the pack with a dismal 8th place finish (with just 4%).

Ballot Test, Sara's New Poll

While it's very scary to see the top two slots occupied by Republicans, remember that these results are all within the margin of error in our earlier FM3 poll (~4%). FM3 had Harkey at 14% and Chavez at 10%... and it all looked fine because Doug was at 16%. But when a race is this tight, with a spread of only a few points, then small changes in a candidate's vote percentage can make a huge difference in where they stand relative to each other.

Just goes to show you how close this race is!

Everyone needs to vote in this primary election!

Not just that, but you need to vote strategically. A vote for Kerr is looking like a wasted vote at this point. He should really step aside, but if he doesn't, it's going to be up to the voters to make sure votes aren't thrown away so that a Democrat can make it through the primary.

On the other hand, Doug Applegate once again leads in this new poll. He has led in every reputable poll.

It's helpful to look at the average between Sara's poll and our FM3 poll:

A simple average is a useful gut check given different pollsters and different methodologies.

However, for those keen on a weighted average instead of a simple average, here are the results:

Applegate is the best bet to get through the primary and on the final November ballot.

So... VOTE! And vote for the Democratic front-runner.

5 Comments

Author

Voices of the 49th is committed to making sure that voters in the 49th congressional district have a meaningful choice in November... which means engaging, educating, informing, and influencing voters through the jungle primary in June so that a Democrat makes it on to the final ballot.

Remember:

1. Vote on June 5th!

2. Vote for the Democratic front-runner

Joe Dusel

5/14/2018 10:29:21 am

These results are scary. Here we HAD a very strong chance of flipping the district only to have three opportunists decide to throw it away. This district was considered to be unwinnable until Applegate's run in 2016. The SDC Democratic Party and the DCCC would give NO help at all to any of the sacrificial Democratic candidates who ran. If we lose the 49th yet again to the Republicans I will NEVER support any of those three again for ANY office in California. AND, it will be back to square one for CD-49 with zero help or support from the party.

Patricia Brown

5/21/2018 07:39:56 am

I completely agree. Democrats are the only people who throw away victory through incompetent campaign strategy and lack of coherent national communication. I’m getting very frustrated—what is the democratic tax message, immigration message, border security message, trade message (NAFTA or TPP). They can’t seem to coherently sell anything. Now we watch 4 democratic candidates potentially ruin our chances to take over the 49th district. Don’t they realize we really don’t care which one of them wins as long as one of them wins.

5/21/2018 08:51:09 am

No, those of us who are paying close attention care a lot which one wins. And, they have detailed their positions on all of the areas you mentioned over and over in the many, many forums that have taken place all over the district since the middle of 2017. All of the candidates have made themselves available for anyone who has questions.

5/21/2018 12:18:08 pm

The #1 priority is that a democratic candidate goes through to the November election. Any other distinctions among the democratic candidates is the #2 priority. I won't go to the polls in the November if these 4 democratic candidate blow our opportunity to have a democratic candidate on the ballot in November.

As far as policy positions, there is a difference between having policy papers on your website (example Hillary Clinton) or having an answer to a constituent question about a policy and SELLING your policy position. I watch at least 4 hours a day of liberal leaning political news coverage, and I am not the only one complaining that the national democratic party is NOT SELLING its message. Fox News is effectively selling its message, but the democrats are not. During the debate over the recent Republican Tax Bill--I couldn't tell you what specific tax bill the democrats were fighting for anymore than I can tell you what the democratic plan is for border security. I know the Trump plan. I don't the democratic plan. If the democrats had been successful selling their message, then you wouldn't have idiot citizens saying "I don't like Obamacare but I like the Affordable Care Act." We need a democrat on the ballot for the 49th district in November or I'm staying home in November. I don't care which democrat it is.

Bianca M link

5/15/2021 12:51:16 pm

Thanks great bllog post

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