A new CA-49 poll from Sara's campaign has Doug as the Dem front-runner with Sara second, same as our FM3 Research poll
Sara's poll was conducted by Benenson, a reputable pollster
Sara's poll of 901 likely primary voters in the 49th Congressional District was conducted between April 28th and May 2nd (about the same time frame as our FM3 Research poll) and has a margin of error of 3.3%.
The simple ballot test from Sara's poll has Diane Harkey and Rocky Chavez on top (14% each) with Doug in third place as the Democratic front-runner (13%). Sara Jacobs and Mike Levin are in the middle of the pack (11% and 10% respectively). Kristin Gaspar trails at 7%, closely followed by Brian Maryott (6%). Paul Kerr brings up the back of the pack with a dismal 8th place finish (with just 4%).
Ballot Test, Sara's New Poll
While it's very scary to see the top two slots occupied by Republicans, remember that these results are all within the margin of error in our earlier FM3 poll (~4%). FM3 had Harkey at 14% and Chavez at 10%... and it all looked fine because Doug was at 16%. But when a race is this tight, with a spread of only a few points, then small changes in a candidate's vote percentage can make a huge difference in where they stand relative to each other.
Just goes to show you how close this race is!
Everyone needs to vote in this primary election!
Not just that, but you need to vote strategically. A vote for Kerr is looking like a wasted vote at this point. He should really step aside, but if he doesn't, it's going to be up to the voters to make sure votes aren't thrown away so that a Democrat can make it through the primary.
On the other hand, Doug Applegate once again leads in this new poll. He has led in every reputable poll.
It's helpful to look at the average between Sara's poll and our FM3 poll:
A simple average is a useful gut check given different pollsters and different methodologies.
However, for those keen on a weighted average instead of a simple average, here are the results:
Applegate is the best bet to get through the primary and on the final November ballot.
So... VOTE! And vote for the Democratic front-runner.
Voices of the 49th is committed to making sure that voters in the 49th congressional district have a meaningful choice in November... which means engaging, educating, informing, and influencing voters through the jungle primary in June so that a Democrat makes it on to the final ballot.