However, there is still danger of a Top Two lock-outCalifornia 2020 recently commissioned a poll of the 49th Congressional District by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz, and Associates (FM3). This poll of 500 likely primary voters was taken from April 26 to April 29. Live interviews were conducted by cell phone and landline. The results reinforce the continuing concerns about the crowded field of candidates in this primary election. With only a month left, no candidate leads by more than 16%. Democrats are still in danger of being locked out in November. The stakes are high and the outcome is still very much in doubt. In a simple ballot test, Democrat Doug Applegate continues to lead with 16%. He has been the Democratic front-runner in every reputable poll taken this year. The new Republican front-runner is Diane Harkey at 14%. The other major candidates are bunched up in the middle of the pack with Sara Jacobs (D) at 12%, Mike Levin (D) at 11%, Rocky Chavez (R) at 10%, and Kristin Gaspar (R) at 9%. Paul Kerr (D) and Brian Maryott (R) trail with 6% and 4% respectively. 16% of voters are still undecided. Ballot Test Doug Applegate is the most well-known Democratic candidate and Rocky Chavez is the best-known Republican. Applegate has a net favorability of +14 points (35% favorable, 21% unfavorable). Chavez has suffered a major drop in favorability from a similar poll conducted in February, from +11 points (30% favorable, 19% unfavorable) in February to +3 (25% favorable, 22% unfavorable) in the current poll. Democrats Sara Jacobs and Paul Kerr significantly increased their awareness and name recognition by spending heavily on television, direct mail, online ads, and paid canvassing. Jacobs has a net favorability of +9 points (23% favorable, 14% unfavorable) while Kerr has a net favorability of +5 points (22% favorable, 17% unfavorable). Mike Levin’s net favorability is +14 points (22% favorable, 8% unfavorable). Republican Diane Harkey has a net favorability of +8 points (16% favorable, 8% unfavorable). Candidate Favorable/Unfavorable (With Comparison to February) This race is still wide open. Democratic and Independent primary voters will need to think seriously about strategic voting in this election to ensure that a Democrat makes it on to the final November ballot. That means voting for the Democratic front-runner or at least one of the top two Democrats. Mail ballots drop next week. Mail voting will start as early as May 7th. Documents to Download: Press Release and Public Polling Memo
11 Comments
Nikki Leeds
5/5/2018 05:25:30 pm
Doug lost by only 1621 votes to D.Issa last time around and now this district is a bit leaning blue. We must unite around the front runner, Doug Applegate, or we will hand this district Harkey or Chávez. 5/6/2018 05:43:35 am
Applegate is the only Progressive in the race. He is SO qualified. He is the best candidate to win this seat!
Noel Breen
5/6/2018 06:39:15 am
Despite erroneous claims on the sample ballot going out this week, Mike Levin's campaign is in 4th place behind frontrunner Douglas L. Applegate, Diane Harkey, and Sara Jacobs. Given this late date, Mr. Kerr and Mr. Levin may have to consider a withdrawal from the race to assure the 49th is Flipped.
Michael Getto Sr
5/7/2018 12:38:58 pm
If Democrats want a congressional seat in the 49th--Col. Doug Applegate is the only choice ! He has earned it and s the ONLY Democrat that can win in November !
Michael Getto, Jr.
5/7/2018 12:58:29 pm
Doug Applegate is a capable candidate -- as he proved in 2016 against steep political odds -- and, will be a capable Member of Congress, as he demonstrates with his informed, principled views of the challenges facing the 49th District and our country. Doug is the first choice in June and is the first choice in November.
Karel Tharp
5/7/2018 01:02:54 pm
Voting for Col. Doug Applegate in this household, all 4 of us! Col. Applegate is the only one who can win this.
Tukaram Savdharia
5/7/2018 01:35:25 pm
Democrates, let us unite and elect Col. Doug Applegate. He was the best Democate candiadate in 2016 and he is the only winnable democrate candidate.
Alice Branca
5/7/2018 01:40:44 pm
Doug Applegate is the progressive with the necessary experience to represent the 49th. His legal and military background combine to make him the strongest candidate.
Paul Deans
5/8/2018 07:55:07 am
Jacobs is the better person to serve our district and our country. No baggage and an intelligent approach to governing. IMHO. 5/15/2018 12:28:50 pm
I agree with Paul, Sara has the intellect to be a great representative of the 49th. I prefer seeing someone who is actually from San Diego to be the representative of the 49th. 6/1/2018 02:04:47 pm
Sara Jacobs should have run for San Diego Unified School District Board of Education as her politcal entry point, not a seat in the United States Congress. Our public schools need an infusion of young energy -- two school board seats up for election (out of five) are occupied by incumbents who have no challenger! If public service were Sara's true motivation, she would have made this choice. Leave a Reply. |
AuthorVoices of the 49th is committed to making sure that voters in the 49th congressional district have a meaningful choice in November... which means engaging, educating, informing, and influencing voters through the jungle primary in June so that a Democrat makes it on to the final ballot. Archives
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