However, there is still danger of a Top Two lock-out
California 2020 recently commissioned a poll of the 49th Congressional District by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz, and Associates (FM3). This poll of 500 likely primary voters was taken from April 26 to April 29. Live interviews were conducted by cell phone and landline.
The results reinforce the continuing concerns about the crowded field of candidates in this primary election. With only a month left, no candidate leads by more than 16%. Democrats are still in danger of being locked out in November. The stakes are high and the outcome is still very much in doubt.
In a simple ballot test, Democrat Doug Applegate continues to lead with 16%. He has been the Democratic front-runner in every reputable poll taken this year. The new Republican front-runner is Diane Harkey at 14%. The other major candidates are bunched up in the middle of the pack with Sara Jacobs (D) at 12%, Mike Levin (D) at 11%, Rocky Chavez (R) at 10%, and Kristin Gaspar (R) at 9%. Paul Kerr (D) and Brian Maryott (R) trail with 6% and 4% respectively. 16% of voters are still undecided.
Doug Applegate is the most well-known Democratic candidate and Rocky Chavez is the best-known Republican. Applegate has a net favorability of +14 points (35% favorable, 21% unfavorable). Chavez has suffered a major drop in favorability from a similar poll conducted in February, from +11 points (30% favorable, 19% unfavorable) in February to +3 (25% favorable, 22% unfavorable) in the current poll.
Democrats Sara Jacobs and Paul Kerr significantly increased their awareness and name recognition by spending heavily on television, direct mail, online ads, and paid canvassing. Jacobs has a net favorability of +9 points (23% favorable, 14% unfavorable) while Kerr has a net favorability of +5 points (22% favorable, 17% unfavorable). Mike Levin’s net favorability is +14 points (22% favorable, 8% unfavorable).
Republican Diane Harkey has a net favorability of +8 points (16% favorable, 8% unfavorable).
Candidate Favorable/Unfavorable (With Comparison to February)
This race is still wide open.
Democratic and Independent primary voters will need to think seriously about strategic voting in this election to ensure that a Democrat makes it on to the final November ballot. That means voting for the Democratic front-runner or at least one of the top two Democrats.
Mail ballots drop next week. Mail voting will start as early as May 7th.
Documents to Download: Press Release and Public Polling Memo
Voices of the 49th is committed to making sure that voters in the 49th congressional district have a meaningful choice in November... which means engaging, educating, informing, and influencing voters through the jungle primary in June so that a Democrat makes it on to the final ballot.