Late April poll from Sara's campaign: Doug Applegate is the front-runner, Sara is second, and the top Republicans look scarier than ever
Sara's poll was conducted by Benenson, a reputable pollster, who surveyed 901 likely primary voters in the 49th Congressional District between April 28th and May 2nd (the poll has a margin of error of 3.3%).
The simple ballot test has Diane Harkey and Rocky Chavez on top (14% each) with Doug in third place as the Democratic front-runner (13%). Sara Jacobs and Mike Levin are in the middle of the pack (11% and 10% respectively). Kristin Gaspar trails at 7%, closely followed by Brian Maryott (6%). Paul Kerr is far behind with a dismal 8th place finish (with just 4%).
While it's very scary to see the top two slots occupied by Republicans, remember that these results are all within the margin of error in our earlier FM3 poll (~4%). FM3 had Harkey at 14% and Chavez at 10%... and it all looked fine because Doug was at 16%. But when a race is this tight, with a spread of only a few points, then small changes in a candidate's vote percentage can make a huge difference in where they stand relative to each other.
Just goes to show you how close this race is!
Everyone needs to vote in this primary election!
Not just that, but you need to vote strategically. A vote for Kerr is looking like a wasted vote at this point. He should really step aside, but if he doesn't, it's going to be up to the voters to make sure votes aren't thrown away so that a Democrat can make it through the primary.
On the other hand, Doug Applegate once again leads in this new poll. He has led in every reputable poll. He's the best bet to get through the primary and on the final November ballot.
The simple average of the two most recent polls is below:
And here is the weighted average:
Vote on June 5th! And vote for the Democratic front-runner, Doug Applegate.